Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages. Last year, we published this explainer, addressing 12 frequently-asked questions about FBO.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the May 2025 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major May 2025 releases in India.

Hindi Films

There were two major Hindi releases in May 2025: Raid 2 and Bhool Chuk Maaf. The forecast (FBO) for Raid 2 was ₹16.2 Cr nett, which the film outperformed, touching the ₹19 Cr mark, i.e., a deviation of 15%. Bhool Chuk Maaf saw the benefit of discounted tickets, which boosted its first-day from the forecasted fair value of ₹3.3 Cr, to almost double that amount. We have been constantly updating our models to incorporate the impact of discounted tickets and promotions like BOGO (Buy One Get One Free). However, each scenario presents itself differently, and the model is learning to adapt to new scenarios, such as the introduction of discounted ticketing a day before release for Bhool Chuk Maaf.

Hollywood Films

May 2025 saw four major Hollywood releases, whose FBO vs. Actual first-day box office can be seen in the chart below.

Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning's forecast was within 16% of the actual, despite an unusual day of release, i.e., Saturday. While Thunderbolts* and The Karate Kid: Legends were forecast with good accuracy, the FBO Model under-reported Final Destination: Bloodlines, which went on to collect twice the forecasted number. Horror genre films in Hollywood generally outperform, because they get a set of audiences who are not regular Hollywood theatre-goers, and hence, not covered in the tracking. We have been working actively on incorporating this factor in the tool.

Retro & HIT: The Third Case

Retro and HIT: The Third Case were the two major multilanguage releases in May 2025. Their forecast vs. actual performance has been summarised in the chart below. The deviation in the original languages (Tamil and Telugu respectively) was 18% and 13%.

Other Major South Indian Language Films

There were eight other major South Indian language releases in May 2025, whose forecast vs. actual performance has been summarised in the chart below. Tamil film Tourist Family outperformed its forecast, benefiting from an exceptionally-positive audience word-of-mouth over the course of its first day. Ace, another Tamil film, however, under-performed, especially given the equity of its lead actor (Vijay Sethupathi).

Marathi & Punjabi Films

There were three major Marathi and Punjabi releases in May 2025, whose forecast vs. actual performance has been summarised in the chart below.