Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in seven major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the October 2026 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major September releases in India.

Jailer 2

The chart below captures the FBO vs. Actual performance of Jailer 2 across its major markets.

Across all language versions, Jailer 2 grossed ₹67.6 Cr, compared to a forecast of ₹62.6 Cr, i.e., a deviation of only 8%. Tamil Nadu, the film’s largest market, saw a deviation of 16%, while the Hindi version opened exactly in line with its FBO (₹3.0 Cr nett/ ₹3.6 Cr gross).

Hindi Releases

Drishyam: The Conclusion opened at ₹62.0 Cr nett, compared to an FBO of ₹45.8 Cr nett. The holiday factor (October 2) maginified the urgency, leading to 26% higher opening than anticipated.

The chart below captures the FBO vs. actual performance of the other major Hindi releases in October 2026.

The forecasts for the other three Hindi releases were fairly accurate, with each film opening within ₹40 lakh nett of its FBO. 

Other Major South Releases

The chart below compares the FBO and actual first-day collections of the other major South releases in October 2026.

The two biggest releases in this set were forecast accurately, with deviations of only 5%. Ranabaali opened at ₹9.3 Cr gross in AP-Telangana, against an FBO of ₹9.7 Cr gross. Aadarsha Kutumbam House No: 47 opened at ₹9.3 Cr gross, compared to a forecast of ₹8.8 Cr gross. Sigma opened exactly in line with its FBO, at ₹1.5 Cr gross. 418 and Comrade Kalyan opened higher than forecast, albeit on small bases.

International Releases

The chart below captures the FBO vs. Actual performance of the two major international releases in October 2026.

There were no Marathi films that opened at ₹1 Cr or more in October 2026.