Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the August 2026 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major August releases in India.

Toxic

The chart below captures the FBO vs. Actual performance of Toxic across its major markets.

The Hindi version of Toxic opened at ₹53.5 Cr nett, which is a deviation of 31% compared to the FBO of ₹37.0 Cr nett. Under-estimation of the demand for the film among irregular theatre-going audiences in small towns in Hindi-speaking markets led to this deviation.

The forecasts for the film’s South markets were broadly accurate. AP-Telangana recorded a deviation of only 3%, while Karnataka and Tamil Nadu registered deviations of 10% and 14% respectively. Kerala had a larger percentage deviation, but on a smaller base.

Hindi & International Releases

The chart below captures the FBO vs. actual performance of major Hindi and International releases in August 2026.

Awarapan 2 opened at ₹22.4 Cr nett against an FBO of ₹14.8 Cr nett, resulting in a deviation of 34%. The recent trend of youth-skewed films with strong music outperforming on their first day is being incorporated as an input into the FBO Model. In case of Awarapan 2, the franchise factor came into play, especially in context of the film's music, leading to an unusual scenario with limited precedent.

The other two releases were forecast with reasonable accuracy in absolute terms.

Other Major South Releases

The chart below compares the FBO and actual first-day collections of the other major South releases in August 2026.

The most significant deviation in this set came from Irumudi, which opened at ₹14.8 Cr gross against an FBO of ₹9.7 Cr gross, resulting in a deviation of 34%. The film benefited from exceptional audience word-of-mouth, as captured in its Ormax Power Rating (OPR) too, resulting in organic growth in footfalls as the first day progeressed.

Ormax Power Rating (OPR) is Ormax Media’s proprietary metric that measures the audience likeability of movies, streaming shows, and television programmes on a scale of 0 to 100. Irumudi is currently tracking at an OPR of 90, which indicates an exceptionally high level of audience appreciation.

The forecasts for the remaining releases were broadly in line with their actual openings in absolute terms. Vishwanath & Sons, the other big South release of the month, collected an aggregate ₹15.7 Cr gross across its major markets, against an FBO of ₹14.4 Cr gross.

There were no  Marathi films that opened at ₹1 Cr or more in August 2026.