Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the January 2026 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major January releases in India.

Major Hindi Releases

Of the four major Hindi releases this month. Border 2, the biggest of them, opened at ₹30.0 Cr nett, just a notch (8%) below the forecast of ₹32.5 Cr nett, reflecting that the FBO model could capture its franchise pull and event positioning (Republic Day weekend release) accurately.

Ikkis' over-delivery compared to its FBO can be attributed to inorganic methods, often termed as "corporate booking" in the industry. The term refers to the producer or their affiliates buying tickets, to boost the box office of the film. Ormax Cinematix's FBO forecast model is not designed to handle this inorganic boost to the box office.

The other two major Hindi releases, Mardaani 3 and Happy Patel: Khatarnak Jasoos, saw minimal deviation in actual box office performance compared to their forecasts (9% and 5% deviation, respectively). 

The RajaSaab

The RajaSaab was the major Pan-India film to release in January 2026. The film's first-day box office potential, as reflected in its FBO across different markets, was limited by poor word-of-mouth generated by the film, resulting in 14% lower performance at an all India level, comapred to the FBO.

Other Major South Releases

There were several South releases, especially around the festive period of Sankranti and Pongal.

Mana Shankara Vara Prasad's actual collections were a notch (9%) higher than its forecast, helped by The RajaSaab's underperformance at the box office. Most other major south films, except Vaa Vaathiyaar, had fairly accurate forecasts in Januaray 2026.

There were no major International, Punjabi or Marathi language releases in January 2026 that collected ₹1 Cr or more on their opening day.