Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the September 2025 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major September releases in India.

Multi-lingual Releases: They Call Him OG & Mirai

September saw two multi-lingual releases from the Telugu market - Pawan Kalyan starrer They Call Him OG, and Teja Sajja starrer Mirai. While both films relied heavily on their home market (AP-Telangana) for a large share of their box office, they found some traction in other markets too. The FBO Model managed to forecast the first-day box office of these films with very high accuracy, as seen in the charts below.

Major Hindi Releases

Forecast vs. actual box office performance of the major Hindi releases of the month can be seen in the chart below. The big Hindi release of the month, Jolly LLB 3, was forecast within 6% of its actual opening. The month also featured the release of Baaghi 4, whose actual first-day box office of ₹11.0 Cr nett is in an "inflated" figure, boosted by inorganic methods like "corporate bookings". The film's FBO on the day of its release was ₹8.8 Cr nett.

Major South Releases

Apart from They Call Him OG and Mirai, there were five other major releases in South Indian languages, whose forecast vs. actual performance has been summarised in the chart below. The numbers in the chart are for the home market of each film, e.g., Tamil Nadu for Madharaasi.

Major International Releases

September 2025 saw two major International film releases, both of which outperformed their FBO by a significant margin. Anime has a dedicated fan base in India, which has only a limited intersection with the regular Hollywood theatre-goers audience base, which Ormax Cinematix research is conducted in. With more anime releases likely in the future, the FBO Model is self-learning to incorporate an anime factor to account for this exception.

The Conjuring: Last Rites benefited from the Eid holiday more than what the model could estimate, surpassing its FBO by a huge margin of 43%. After struggling to maintain its box office share in India in the post-pandemic period, International content is finally finding its footing at the Indian box office. While this makes the FBO Model momentarily unstable, we are working on developing it on priority, to address the dynamic nature of the category.

There were no Kannada (original language), Punjabi and Marathi language releases in September 2025 that collected ₹1 Cr or more on their opening day.