Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in nine major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages. Last year, we published this explainer, addressing 12 frequently-asked questions about FBO.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the April 2025 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major April 2025 releases in India. 

Good Bad Ugly

Tamil film Good Bad Ugly was the big event release of the month. The film released across the four South Indian markets, and its forecast vs. actual box office was very accurate, with a deviation of only 8% in the home market (Tamil Nadu).

Major Hindi Films

There were three major Hindi releases this month. Of these, our forecasts for Jaat and Ground Zero were accurate to the extent of 89% and 91% respectively. However, there was a wide deviation of about ₹3 Cr for Kesari: Chapter 2, which under-performed compared to its FBO. The film released on Good Friday, and while holiday releases are tougher to forecast compared to those releasing on regular Friday, we are examining other reasons for this wide deviation, including the impact of an Adults only ("A") certification, and how that can impact a major film, especially when it releases on a holiday, when families tend to visit theatres. We hope to learn from this deviation and incorporate these learnings as an improvement in our FBO Model.

Other Major South Indian Language Films

There were eight other major South Indian language releases in April 2025, whose forecast vs. actual performance has been summarised in the chart below. Malayalam film Thudarum and Telugu film Arjun Son Of Vyjayanthi outperformed their FBO, while the other six films were within fairly reasonable limits of deviation.

Note: There were no major releases with a first-day box office of ₹1 Cr or more in April 2025, in other languages in which OCX tracks films, i.e., Hollywood, Marathi, Punjabi, and Bengali.