Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the July 2025 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major July 2025 releases in India.

Saiyaara & Mahavatar Narsimha

These two films stood out as surprises in July 2025, surpassing expectations by a significant margin. Saiyaara opened at ₹21.5 Cr (nett domestic), which is significantly higher than its forecast of ₹8.1 Cr. The film saw a surge in audience interest in the week leading up to its release, because of a strong trailer, music, and well-promoted ticket discounts across online booking platforms. FBO for the film increased over the week of its release, but the film still outperfomed its FBO by a wide margin.

Mahavatar Narsimha opened at a cumulative gross domestic box office of ₹2.5 Cr across all languages put together, outperforming its FBO of ₹1.5 Cr (gross cumulative across languages), largely because of the Hindi version's performance. The film has subsquently gone on to become a major success - a first for a homegrown animation film in India.

Major Hindi & Hollywood Releases

Forecast vs. actual box office performance of the major Hollywood and Hindi releases of the month, apart from Saiyaara, can be seen in the chart below. All five films were accurately forecast within 10% of their actual box office.

Major South Releases

There were several major releases across the four South Indian languages, whose forecast vs. actual performance has been summarised in the chart below. The numbers in the chart are for the home market of each film, e.g., AP-Telangana for Hari Hara Veera Mallu. Please check out our social media infographics for pan India forecast vs. actual performance of some of these films, which had a wide release across different language markets.

While the opening of the two big Telugu films, Hari Hara Veera Mallu and Kingdom, were forecast accurately, Tamil film Thalaivan Thalaivii outperformed significantly, aided by good reviews and audience word-of-mouth on its release day.

Sarbala Ji (Punjabi)

Punjabi film Sarbala Ji marginally underperformed (₹1.2 Cr nett) vis-à-vis its forecast (₹1.6 Cr nett).

There were no Marathi language releases in July 2025 that collected ₹1 Cr or more on their opening day.