Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in nine major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages. Last year, we published this explainer, addressing 12 frequently-asked questions about FBO.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the March 2025 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major March 2025 releases in India. 

L2 Empuraan

In a month that didn't see the usual flow of big releases, Malayalam film L2 Empuraan stood out as a significant multi-language release, and went on to break the record for the highest first-day box office of a Malayalam language film. Its forecast vs. actual box office was within 5% in the two main markets for the film, i.e., Kerala and Karnataka. In other markets too, the deviation was within ₹40 lac of the actual performance.

Major Hindi Films

There were only two major Hindi releases this month, and both released in holiday scenarios. The Diplomat released on the Holi festival holiday, while Sikandar was a rare Sunday release, and that too in the Ramadan period. Festival releases are difficult to forecast, and Sikandar's case in particular doesn't have enough precedences for the FBO Model to learn from. The film also suffered from an internet leak the day before its release, and also from weak audience word-of-mouth, and fell well short of its ₹30+ Cr potential that the holiday offered, given the film's credentials.

Other Major South Indian Language Films

There were only three other major South Indian language releases in March 2025, whose forecast vs. actual performance has been summarised in the chart below.

Note: Tamil film Veera Dheera Sooran Part-2 had a dsirupted release with shows starting only later in the day, and hence has not been considered in this report. There were no major releases with a first-day box office of ₹1 Cr or more in March 2025, in other languages in which OCX tracks films, i.e., Hollywood, Marathi, Punjabi, and Bengali.