Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the March 2026 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major February releases in India.

Dhurandhar: The Revenge

Dhurandhar: The Revenge saw an accurate forecast, with the actual Day 1 (₹75.0 Cr Nett) being 7% higher than the FBO (₹69.5 Cr Nett). The 5-6 Cr difference is reflective of the spontaneous surplus footfalls the film could generate on its day of release, riding on the massive organic anticipation, including among irregular theatre-goers.

The film saw paid previews from 5pm the day before its full-fledged release. Given the scale of the release, the paid previews were also tracked in Ormax Cinematix, being the first instance of such reporting ever. The paid preview numbers were also estimated with good accuracy (FBO: ₹34.8 Cr Nett vs. Actual 39.5 Cr Nett), i.e., a deviation of 12%. Collectively, the model's accuracy on both paid previews and opening day reinforces its strength in sizing demand for large, event-led Hindi releases.

Major South Releases

There were five prominent South releases in the month of March, whose FBO vs. actual performance is summarised in the chart below:

The model delivered consistent accuracy for most films in March 2026, except Youth.

Youth stands out as a useful learning. The model appears to have underestimated the demand that its youth-led themes could unlock, especially given the absence of a big star or franchise backing, but with the support of a festive holiday (Ugadi was a partial state holiday in Tamil Nadu on March 19, 2026).

Project Hail Mary

The forecast for Project Hail Mary was highly accurate (~2% deviation), with the model correctly sizing its Day 1 demand in India, despite the film releasing a week after Dhurandhar: The Revenge, which got most of the showcasing at premium multiplexes, including the IMAX screens.

There were no major Punjabi or Marathi language releases in March 2026 that collected ₹1 Cr or more on their opening day.