Launched in 2010, Ormax Cinematix (OCX) is our proprietary campaign tracking and forecasting tool for theatrical film releases in eight major languages, tracking over 750 films every year. OCX surveys 2,000 theatre-going audiences every week, capturing their engagement with upcoming releases through three key parameters: Buzz, Reach, and Appeal. This data, when combined with market factors such as release scale, ticket price, and holiday release, is used to forecast the first-day box office (domestic) of the tracked films. This parameter, known as FBO serves as the cornerstone of OCX, relied upon by numerous subscribers across languages.

Box office forecasting is complex, involving an interplay of over 20 variables across both demand and supply sides. The comparison between FBO and actual film openings has sparked considerable discussion within the Indian film industry. At times, perceptions of a film’s ‘accuracy’ emerge more from hearsay than from actual data, as OCX reports are still widely pirated in the industry despite our efforts to curb this practice.

In light of this, we started a monthly blog from October 2024, which compares the forecast (FBO) with the actual openings of major films released each month. Actual box office data can vary by source, so Ormax generates its own estimates using a mix of reliable industry sources. These estimates will serve as the source for actual first-day box office numbers in this blog too. For questions about OCX or the box office figures in this blog, you can reach us at [email protected].

This is the November 2025 edition of this blog. Please use this link to download a summary of FBO vs. Actual comparison for all major November releases in India.

Major Hindi Releases

The FBO vs. actual performance of the five major Hindi language releases of the month can be seen below. The two big films of the month, Tere Ishk Mein and De De Pyaar De 2, were forecast within 8% and 1% of their actual opening box office, respectively. 120 Bahadur under-performed its forecast by ₹1 Cr, while Mastiii 4 and Haq were forecast with good accuracy.

Major South Releases

There were several South releases, and most of them underperformed compared to their forecasts, highlighting an emerging concern of low openings for well-budgeted films in Tamil and Telugu markets.

Apart from the original Tamil version in Tamil Nadu depicted in the chart above, Kaantha released across the South markets, and underperformed across all of them, with a gross first-day box office of only ₹5.4 Cr, compared to the forecast (collectively across the South states) of ₹9.2 Cr. Given the consistent under-performance across multiple films this month, we are examining if these deviations are aberrations, or represent a larger trend, which needs to be factored into the FBO Model.

Major International Releases

The two major Hollywood releases of the month were forecast with reasonable accuracy, with Zootopia 2 being forecast with 100% accuracy, and Predators: Badlands being under-reported by 22%.

There were no Malayalam (original language), Kannada (original language), Punjabi, Marathi lor Gujarati language releases in November 2025 that collected ₹1 Cr or more on their opening day.